The field guide
Short, practical explainers on how forecasting actually works — written to make the tools on the map more useful. No fluff, no doom headlines, just the mechanics.
SoundingsHow to read a skew-T sounding
The five things that carry the chart: the two traces, CAPE and the cap, inversions, the dendritic growth zone, and the hodograph.
VerificationHow forecast verification works
What MAE, RMSE, and bias actually measure, why truth comes from analyses like RTMA, and the two traps that make scoreboards lie.
ModelsA field guide to the weather models
GFS, Euro, HRRR, NBM, GEFS, and the AI generation — what each one is, where it shines, and which to trust for which job.
Global driversWhat is the MJO?
The eastward-moving tropical engine behind week-2 and week-3 forecast skill, and how to read the 8-phase diagram.